The United States military just finished its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, and global energy markets are officially spiraling.
Brent crude broke through $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May. That isn't a random spike. It is the direct result of a conflict expanding from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, threatening the world's most sensitive shipping lanes all at once.
While Washington insists its air campaign is designed to protect commercial shipping, Tehran isn't backing down. The war has entered a dangerous new phase where military posturing, economic leverage, and regional proxy attacks are feeding off each other.
If you are trying to make sense of what is actually happening right now between Washington and Tehran, here is what is going on beneath the headlines.
Thirteen Nights of Air Strikes and No Clear Exit
American bombers and warships haven't stopped firing.
U.S. Central Command confirmed that its 13th round of nightly operations wrapped up around 9 p.m. Eastern Time on July 23. The military targets were specific—command facilities, drone storage centers, radar stations, and missile launch sites. Strikes pounded coastal positions near Qeshm Island and Bandar Abbas.
Yet, Iran's defensive capability remains active.
Despite repeated official statements that Iranian forces are being crippled, Iranian drones continue striking regional targets. Air raid sirens sounded in Jordan, and explosions hit near U.S. bases in Kuwait, including the Al-Adiri installation. Iranian forces also rejected a ceasefire deal presented by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi. Why? Because the offer failed to address who controls shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The reality on the ground is simple. Air strikes can destroy physical structures, but they haven't stopped Iran from harassing maritime traffic or launching counter-strikes.
The Red Sea Bottleneck Changes Everything
For weeks, the maritime fight was concentrated around the Strait of Hormuz. That changed on Thursday.
Yemen's Houthi movement declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia and attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia had been bypassing the Strait of Hormuz by piping oil west to Red Sea ports. By targeting those tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Houthis closed the backup route.
President Donald Trump reacted immediately on Truth Social, threatening "major military punishment" against Iran for Houthi actions. He argued that Washington considers the Houthis an direct proxy for Tehran.
Closing two global chokepoints simultaneously is an economic nightmare. Nearly 20 percent of world oil flows through Hormuz, and millions more barrels rely on the Red Sea. With both routes under threat, insurance costs for tankers in the region doubled in a single day.
Paying for War With Frozen Iranian Funds
President Trump introduced another controversial measure this week. He announced that any physical damage to commercial cargo or shipping vessels caused by Iranian attacks will be paid for directly using frozen Iranian assets held by the U.S. government.
Billions of dollars in Iranian assets have sat frozen in foreign accounts under U.S. sanction laws for years.
Using those funds to compensate private shipping companies is legally messy and diplomatically unprecedented. Legal scholars point out that seizure of foreign sovereign funds for private maritime claims faces massive international legal hurdles. Iranian officials responded by threatening to expand target zones toward Tel Aviv and push for total closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait if U.S. strikes reach Tehran or Iranian power grids.
The Growing Pushback Inside Washington
The White House is not acting with unanimous domestic support.
On Thursday, the House of Representatives passed legislation directing the president to halt unauthorized military action against Iran. It marks a significant Congressional rebuke. Under Article I of the U.S. Constitution, Congress holds the sole power to declare war.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are worried about two things:
- A full-scale regional conflict with no clear end date or strategic exit plan.
- Domestic inflation caused by a sustained energy shock that spikes gasoline prices nationwide.
While Washington debates constitutional authority, U.S. troop levels across the Middle East have climbed past 50,000 service members. Heavy bombers like the B-1 Lancer are stationed in the region and in the U.K., ready for expanded operations if civilian power plants or municipal infrastructure in Tehran become targets.
What You Should Watch Next
The crisis isn't resolving anytime soon, but you can track its direction by watching three clear indicators over the next few days:
- Brent crude benchmark prices: Watch if oil stabilizes near $100 or breaks higher toward the $120 mark predicted by Wall Street analysts. Higher energy prices translate directly to rising fuel costs and transport inflation globally.
- U.S. target selection: Pay attention to whether CENTCOM strikes stick to coastal military sites or shift to Iranian power grids, bridges, and nuclear-adjacent facilities like Mount Kolang. A shift to civil infrastructure signals a much longer, wider war.
- Congressional veto fights: Keep an eye on whether the Senate passes matching war-powers legislation and if Congress has the votes to override a presidential veto.
